Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CA La Paz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
CA La Paz 2-2 Tlaxcala
Original prediction
CA La Paz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 62.1% | 73.1% | 11.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.62 | 19.8% | 13.9% | -5.9 pts |
| Away | 5.02 | 18.2% | 13.1% | -5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.62 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
CA La Paz
Probability
73.1%
Model confidence
73.1%
CA La Paz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CA La PazWLWWD
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
TlaxcalaWDWLW
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CA La PazTlaxcala
77.8Attack63.9
58.3Defence30.6
63.9Form41.7
65.8Power46.2
3.70xG1.39