Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wolves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burnley 1-2 Wolves
Original prediction
Wolves
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.06 | 30.8% | 30.9% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 27.0% | 25.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 42.2% | 43.5% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Wolves
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Wolves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BurnleyDWDLD
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
WolvesLLWLW
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BurnleyWolves
50.0Attack59.3
36.7Defence48.1
26.7Form51.9
38.7Power54.4
1.57xG2.12