Burnleyvs
Middlesbrough
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Middlesbrough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burnley 1-1 Middlesbrough
Original prediction
Middlesbrough
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 34.0% | 29.7% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.7% | 25.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 39.3% | 44.6% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.52 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Middlesbrough
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Middlesbrough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00