Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burnley 1-1 Derby
Original prediction
Burnley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 51.4% | 44.4% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.8% | 25.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 4.11 | 22.8% | 30.4% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.63 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Burnley
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Burnley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BurnleyLDLDL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
DerbyLLLWL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
BurnleyDerby
38.1Attack28.6
23.8Defence38.1
14.3Form19.0
28.9Power31.1
1.50xG1.27