Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burnley 2-2 Charlton
Original prediction
Burnley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 57.6% | 42.0% | -15.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 24.4% | 28.5% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 5.21 | 18.1% | 29.5% | 11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.87 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Burnley
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Burnley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BurnleyWDLDL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CharltonDLDDL
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BurnleyCharlton
48.1Attack29.6
37.0Defence59.3
25.9Form48.1
37.9Power48.4
1.23xG1.09