Burnleyvs
Bristol City
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bristol City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Burnley 1-2 Bristol City
Original prediction
Bristol City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 48.9% | 34.8% | -14.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.3% | 26.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.79 | 24.7% | 39.1% | 14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Bristol City
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Bristol City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40