Bristol Roversvs
Exeter City
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bristol Rovers · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bristol Rovers 1-0 Exeter City
Original prediction
Bristol Rovers
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 55.6% | 42.4% | -13.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.4% | 29.5% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 4.65 | 19.9% | 28.2% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–014%
Predicted outcome
Bristol Rovers
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Bristol Rovers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60