Bristol Cityvs
Watford
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bristol City · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bristol City 1-0 Watford
Original prediction
Bristol City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 54.1% | 45.4% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 24.7% | 25.9% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 4.42 | 21.3% | 28.7% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Bristol City
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
45.4%
Bristol City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40