Bristol Cityvs
Portsmouth
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bristol City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bristol City 2-1 Portsmouth
Original prediction
Bristol City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 42.7% | 36.4% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.3% | 27.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.23 | 29.0% | 36.2% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Bristol City
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Bristol City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60