Bristol Cityvs
Lincoln
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/15/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bristol City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bristol City 0-1 Lincoln
Original prediction
Bristol City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 50.0% | 42.3% | -7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.9% | 28.2% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 4.07 | 23.1% | 29.6% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Bristol City
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Bristol City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00