Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brighton 1-1 Leeds
Original prediction
Brighton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 47.4% | 41.4% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 27.1% | 27.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.73 | 25.5% | 31.6% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.51 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Brighton
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Brighton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BrightonLWWDW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
LeedsDWWWD
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
BrightonLeeds
100.0Attack33.3
33.3Defence83.3
50.0Form66.7
58.3Power64.8
1.62xG1.41