Brightonvs
Crystal Palace
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brighton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brighton 5-0 Crystal Palace
Original prediction
Brighton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 63.0% | 67.7% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.55 | 20.8% | 17.9% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 5.85 | 16.2% | 14.4% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.3–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Brighton
Probability
67.7%
Model confidence
67.7%
Brighton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 2 · avg 3.40/0.40
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20