Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brighton 3-0 Arsenal
Original prediction
Arsenal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.72 | 20.2% | 32.7% | 12.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 24.4% | 25.3% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.72 | 55.4% | 42.0% | -13.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BrightonWWDLW
GF 16 · GA 7 · avg 3.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ArsenalWWWWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BrightonArsenal
100.0Attack66.7
58.3Defence91.7
58.3Form100.0
67.8Power87.9
1.53xG1.55