Brentfordvs
Sunderland
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brentford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brentford 1-1 Sunderland
Original prediction
Brentford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 56.6% | 47.5% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.7% | 26.4% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 5.09 | 18.7% | 26.0% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.85 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Brentford
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Brentford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 21 · GA 4 · avg 4.20/0.80
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80