Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brentford · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brentford 1-2 Liverpool
Original prediction
Brentford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 39.7% | 49.5% | 9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 26.2% | 24.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 34.1% | 25.6% | -8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Brentford
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Brentford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BrentfordDWWDD
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LiverpoolWLWWD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BrentfordLiverpool
66.7Attack38.9
66.7Defence61.1
55.6Form50.0
62.7Power51.9
1.72xG0.93