Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brentford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Brentford 3-0 Chelsea
Original prediction
Brentford
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 36.5% | 43.5% | 7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 25.8% | 24.4% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 37.8% | 32.1% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Brentford
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Brentford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BrentfordWDDDW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
ChelseaDWLWW
GF 15 · GA 10 · avg 3.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BrentfordChelsea
58.3Attack83.3
66.7Defence25.0
50.0Form58.3
58.7Power58.8
2.04xG1.50