Bournemouthvs
Sunderland
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bournemouth · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland
Original prediction
Bournemouth
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 44.3% | 42.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.9% | 25.3% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.41 | 27.8% | 31.9% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Bournemouth
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Bournemouth has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00