Bournemouthvs
Liverpool
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool
Original prediction
Liverpool
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.08 | 30.9% | 32.8% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 25.3% | 26.0% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 43.8% | 41.2% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Liverpool
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Liverpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80