Bournemouthvs
Everton
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Everton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bournemouth 1-1 Everton
Original prediction
Everton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 46.0% | 34.8% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 27.2% | 27.2% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 26.9% | 38.0% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.50 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Everton
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Everton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 9 · avg 3.80/1.80
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00