Bournemouthvs
Brentford
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brentford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford
Original prediction
Brentford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 38.9% | 33.6% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.6% | 26.7% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 34.5% | 39.8% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.59 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Brentford
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Brentford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 18 · GA 3 · avg 3.60/0.60