Botafogovs
Vasco DA Gama
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/7/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botafogo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Botafogo 1-2 Vasco DA Gama
Original prediction
Botafogo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.98 | 31.5% | 42.2% | 10.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.7% | 24.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.25 | 41.8% | 32.9% | -8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Botafogo
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Botafogo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40