Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Botafogo 0-0 Palmeiras
Original prediction
Palmeiras
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.30 | 28.5% | 19.1% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 27.1% | 22.0% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 44.3% | 58.9% | 14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
58.9%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BotafogoLLWLL
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PalmeirasDDWWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BotafogoPalmeiras
51.4Attack60.0
44.4Defence72.0
41.7Form69.3
47.2Power68.0
0.87xG1.94