Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botafogo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Botafogo 3-2 Gremio
Original prediction
Botafogo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 07:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 55.1% | 49.4% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.5% | 24.7% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 4.62 | 20.4% | 25.9% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Botafogo
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Botafogo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BotafogoDDLLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GremioLLWWD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BotafogoGremio
48.7Attack35.9
47.4Defence55.1
41.0Form35.9
47.2Power44.5
1.42xG1.02