Botafogovs
Chapecoense-sc
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/17/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botafogo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Botafogo 1-0 Chapecoense-sc
Original prediction
Botafogo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 69.4% | 67.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.13 | 18.4% | 18.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 7.75 | 12.2% | 14.2% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Botafogo
Probability
67.9%
Model confidence
67.9%
Botafogo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40