Boston Rivervs
Defensor Sporting
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 10/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Boston River 0-0 Defensor Sporting, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Boston River 1-0 Defensor Sporting
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 12:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 35.5% | 36.8% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.4% | 31.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 35.0% | 32.2% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Projected Score
Boston River 0–0 Defensor Sporting
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.1%
Model confidence
36.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Boston RiverDWDLW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Defensor SportingLLLWL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Boston RiverDefensor Sporting
33.3Attack31.3
55.2Defence59.4
35.4Form36.5
43.3Power44.9
0.86xG0.77