Bosnia & Herzegovinavs
Sweden
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/2/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sweden · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Sweden
Original prediction
Sweden
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 34.5% | 35.6% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 26.6% | 27.8% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.43 | 38.9% | 36.7% | -2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.55 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Sweden
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Sweden has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00