Bosnia & Herzegovinavs
Poland
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/5/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bosnia & Herzegovina · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland
Original prediction
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 33.6% | 36.6% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 29.0% | 28.0% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 37.4% | 35.3% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Bosnia & Herzegovina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40