Bonnyrigg Rose Athleticvs
Motherwell U21
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3-0 Motherwell U21
Original prediction
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 67.7% | 54.0% | -13.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.22 | 17.3% | 21.5% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 6.03 | 15.0% | 24.5% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60
GF 5 · GA 18 · avg 1.00/3.60