Bonnyrigg Rose Athleticvs
Airdrie United
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Airdrie United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1-6 Airdrie United
Original prediction
Airdrie United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.34 | 26.8% | 36.1% | 9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.5% | 25.3% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 48.7% | 38.6% | -10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Airdrie United
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Airdrie United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60