Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
West Ham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bolton 2-3 West Ham
Original prediction
West Ham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.99 | 18.8% | 22.4% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.16 | 22.6% | 23.7% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 1.60 | 58.6% | 53.9% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
West Ham
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
West Ham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BoltonLLLDW
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
West HamWWDWL
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BoltonWest Ham
26.7Attack73.3
40.0Defence53.3
26.7Form53.3
34.0Power60.1
1.03xG1.90