Boltonvs
Stoke City
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stoke City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bolton 1-2 Stoke City
Original prediction
Stoke City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.72 | 34.5% | 33.0% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.4% | 27.8% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 37.1% | 39.2% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Stoke City
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Stoke City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60