Boltonvs
Middlesbrough
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Middlesbrough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bolton 1-5 Middlesbrough
Original prediction
Middlesbrough
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.80 | 19.5% | 25.9% | 6.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.28 | 21.9% | 24.3% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 1.60 | 58.6% | 49.7% | -8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Middlesbrough
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Middlesbrough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60