Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Bolton are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Lincoln are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 50.0 against 50.0. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.8% in the Championship, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
13.8%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20