Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bolton 0-1 Lincoln
Original prediction
Bolton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 38.4% | 45.6% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.9% | 27.2% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 32.7% | 27.2% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BoltonDWLWD
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LincolnWLLWL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
BoltonLincoln
33.3Attack33.3
83.3Defence16.7
66.7Form0.0
64.8Power21.5
1.73xG0.92