Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cardiff · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bolton 1-0 Cardiff
Original prediction
Cardiff
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 36.3% | 35.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 26.3% | 27.4% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.49 | 37.4% | 37.4% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Cardiff
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Cardiff has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BoltonLLLLD
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CardiffDLLDL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
BoltonCardiff
33.3Attack38.9
33.3Defence44.4
22.2Form22.2
32.5Power38.2
1.29xG1.37