Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bologna · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bologna 1-1 Torino
Original prediction
Bologna
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 48.5% | 41.9% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.7% | 28.1% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 4.00 | 23.7% | 30.0% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Bologna
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Bologna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BolognaLDLLL
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
TorinoLWLLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BolognaTorino
16.7Attack33.3
58.3Defence41.7
8.3Form25.0
31.2Power36.6
1.25xG1.05