Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bologna · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bologna 2-2 Sassuolo
Original prediction
Bologna
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 48.1% | 37.9% | -10.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 27.4% | 28.6% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.88 | 24.4% | 33.6% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Bologna
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Bologna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BolognaLLLLW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SassuoloDWLWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BolognaSassuolo
0.0Attack50.0
66.7Defence50.0
0.0Form50.0
26.7Power53.0
1.16xG1.23