Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bohemians · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Bohemians 0-2 Waterford
Original prediction
Bohemians
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 58.1% | 40.4% | -17.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.8% | 25.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.75 | 19.1% | 34.5% | 15.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Bohemians
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Bohemians has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BohemiansWDWWD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
WaterfordLDDWW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BohemiansWaterford
55.6Attack77.8
88.9Defence77.8
55.6Form100.0
64.6Power87.0
1.55xG1.74