Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lincoln · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Blackpool are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Lincoln are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lincoln hold a 17.6-point power-rating edge (35.5 v 53.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.1% in the League Cup, while Lincoln holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lincoln
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
14.1%
Lincoln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20