Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Blackburn · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Blackburn 2-0 Wrexham
Original prediction
Blackburn
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 34.6% | 40.6% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 29.5% | 27.7% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 35.8% | 31.8% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Blackburn
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Blackburn has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BlackburnLWWDW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
WrexhamWLDWL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BlackburnWrexham
51.5Attack45.5
51.5Defence51.5
45.5Form42.4
51.9Power46.7
1.63xG1.19