Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Millwall · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Blackburn 3-1 Millwall
Original prediction
Millwall
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 34.5% | 32.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.5% | 27.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 37.1% | 39.9% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Millwall
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Millwall has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BlackburnLLDLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MillwallLWLLW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
BlackburnMillwall
38.9Attack66.7
50.0Defence46.7
27.8Form60.0
41.8Power55.8
1.29xG1.60