Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Blackburn · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Blackburn 2-1 Cardiff
Original prediction
Blackburn
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.89 | 32.4% | 39.0% | 6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.3% | 27.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 41.3% | 33.1% | -8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Blackburn
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Blackburn has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BlackburnDWLLD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CardiffWLDLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BlackburnCardiff
50.0Attack41.7
50.0Defence50.0
37.5Form29.2
48.0Power42.4
1.60xG1.14