Birminghamvs
Wolves
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/6/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Birmingham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birmingham 2-2 Wolves
Original prediction
Birmingham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.95 | 31.7% | 37.9% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.9% | 26.9% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 39.4% | 35.3% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Birmingham
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60