Birminghamvs
Southampton
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birmingham 1-1 Southampton
Original prediction
Southampton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 37.0% | 36.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.6% | 27.2% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 35.4% | 36.7% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Southampton
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Southampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60