Birminghamvs
QPR
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Birmingham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birmingham 3-0 QPR
Original prediction
Birmingham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 46.8% | 40.6% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.9% | 27.4% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.55 | 26.3% | 31.9% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Birmingham
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00