Birminghamvs
Preston
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Birmingham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birmingham 4-0 Preston
Original prediction
Birmingham
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 64.1% | 54.4% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.46 | 21.1% | 25.1% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 6.35 | 14.8% | 20.5% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Birmingham
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40