Birminghamvs
Middlesbrough
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Middlesbrough · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Birmingham 2-2 Middlesbrough
Original prediction
Middlesbrough
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 34.8% | 35.2% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.8% | 25.0% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.43 | 38.5% | 39.8% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Middlesbrough
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Middlesbrough has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80