Berwick Rangersvs
Stranraer
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stranraer · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Berwick Rangers 3-2 Stranraer
Original prediction
Stranraer
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.07 | 22.0% | 36.6% | 14.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 22.6% | 23.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.62 | 55.3% | 39.8% | -15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Stranraer
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Stranraer has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20