Benficavs
Vitória SC
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 10/11/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Benfica 2-0 Vitória SC, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Benfica 2-0 Vitória SC
Original prediction
Benfica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 77.0% | 64.8% | -12.2 pts |
| Draw | 6.36 | 14.8% | 20.7% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 11.57 | 8.2% | 14.5% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.2 pts
Projected Score
Benfica 2–0 Vitória SC
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
64.8%
Model confidence
64.8%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BenficaLWWWW
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Vitória SCWDLDL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
BenficaVitória SC
100.0Attack23.8
66.7Defence61.9
76.2Form23.8
76.8Power39.5
2.04xG0.60