Benficavs
GIL Vicente
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 9/13/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Benfica 3-1 GIL Vicente
Original prediction
Benfica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 83.1% | 61.0% | -22.1 pts |
| Draw | 8.09 | 11.7% | 21.9% | 10.3 pts |
| Away | 18.16 | 5.2% | 17.0% | 11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
61.0%
Model confidence
61.0%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BenficaWWWWW
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
GIL VicenteLDWWD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BenficaGIL Vicente
100.0Attack25.0
80.0Defence91.7
86.7Form58.3
84.8Power60.3
1.70xG0.73