Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Benfica 2-1 Estoril
Original prediction
Benfica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.11 | 85.0% | 60.1% | -24.9 pts |
| Draw | 9.51 | 9.9% | 21.3% | 11.4 pts |
| Away | 18.78 | 5.0% | 18.6% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
60.1%
Model confidence
60.1%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
BenficaWWWDD
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
EstorilLLDDD
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
BenficaEstoril
100.0Attack11.1
66.7Defence44.4
66.7Form11.1
71.3Power26.4
1.99xG0.90